Results from my simulator, week by week. Forgive me for not having posted Week 1 and not having updated for Week 3.
After Week 4 vs. Ole Miss
0.2, #Auburn
0.8, #Miss St
0.075, #Georgia
0.9, #Duke
0.075, #Florida
0.5, #Ky
0.35, #Tennessee
0.3 #wake
Post-week-4 simulation
0 wins: 0 0.0
1 wins: 0 0.0
2 wins: 0 0.0
3 wins: 0 0.0
4 wins: 3286 0.003286
5 wins: 47697 0.047697
6 wins: 214582 0.214582
7 wins: 352915 0.352915
8 wins: 264524 0.264524
9 wins: 97962 0.097962
10 wins: 17573 0.017573
11 wins: 1421 0.001421
12 wins: 40 4.0e-005
After Week 2 vs. South Carolina
Estimates:
1,
1,
0.9, #Rice
0.4, #Miss
0.075, #Auburn
0.7, #Miss St
0.05, #Georgia
0.85, #Duke
0.05, #Florida
0.5, #Ky
0.15, #Tennessee
0.25 #wake
Simulation
0 wins: 0 0.0
1 wins: 0 0.0
2 wins: 720 0.00072
3 wins: 13757 0.013757
4 wins: 91672 0.091672
5 wins: 254861 0.254861
6 wins: 334087 0.334087
7 wins: 218079 0.218079
8 wins: 73087 0.073087
9 wins: 12520 0.01252
10 wins: 1178 0.001178
11 wins: 38 3.8e-005
12 wins: 1 1.0e-006
Preseason
0 wins: 1875 0.001875
1 wins: 29092 0.029092
2 wins: 128019 0.128019
3 wins: 259093 0.259093
4 wins: 289021 0.289021
5 wins: 192193 0.192193
6 wins: 77846 0.077846
7 wins: 19599 0.019599
8 wins: 2978 0.002978
9 wins: 272 0.000272
10 wins: 11 1.1e-005
11 wins: 1 1.0e-006
12 wins: 0 0.0
2 responses so far ↓
1 Moving the yardage dicussion forward // Sep 26, 2008 at 1:21 pm
[...] keep forgetting about my crude little season simulator, but it’s kind of fun to see how my probabilities for each game predictions turn into W-L. [...]
2 [Geek alert] Sagarin-projected point spreads and probability of winning // Oct 8, 2008 at 10:22 am
[...] been thinking about how to improve my estimation of Vanderbilt’s winning probability for remaining games. As I dig deeper in some of the computer rankings, I think the Sagarins [...]
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