Save the Shield! A Vanderbilt sports blog

I’m not going to get too upset about Saturday’s result. Maybe when Kentucky finds a coach who can actually hang onto his accomplishments rather than getting them all vacated by the NCAA, I’ll respect them as a good basketball program again rather than just proficient cheaters.

But we’re still working on a pretty good season, and how the team reacts to its first adversity in a while will mean a lot. I wrote up a long post just now on the topic of Joe Lunardi’s latest projections — not sure if there’s a way to permalink to Feb. 1, but at any rate we’re supposedly the top 4-seed. I figure it’s worth preserving.

omnidore opined,

As good as I think this team is, I’m pretty surprised that he has VU as 13th on his S curve considering only 1 win over a ranked team.

And I responded:

Well, we have one road win against a 4-seed, another road win against a 10-seed, and a home win against an 8-seed. Only one of those would map into Lunardi’s top 25, i.e. a 6 seed or the best of the four 7s. But the NCAA committee doesn’t consider poll top 25 at all, of course, and I don’t think RPI top 25 makes it up there like RPI top 50. That’s great for us because we’re 3-2 vs. top 50 with two of the wins on the road.

Tennessee by contrast has a great home win over a 1-seed, another home win over a 10-seed, and a home win over a 9-seed. As great as their best win is, I think I’ll take our three biggest wins over theirs (and only one of those maps to Lunardi’s supposed Top 25, anyway, so you’d have to be surprised if they were 13th too).

New Mexico has one fewer loss and five more wins* on the 95th schedule (per KenPom, where we have the 12th schedule, and yes I’m mixing sources), but their best wins are also at home over a 3 (BYU), an 8 (Cal), and a 10 (A&M). Again, only one above Joe’s 6-line.

Temple has two more wins than us on the 30th schedule. Best wins are home versus a 1 (’Nova), a 7 (X), and an 11 (Siennnna). I don’t know where Xavier would fall among the 7-seeds, but if you were only interest in top 28 wins that would be a second one for Temple. Good away win vs. a last four out (Seton Hall).

So I think it’s appropriate for Vanderbilt to be first among those; I like our resume all told, especially because of the 2-1 road vs. RPI top 50. That’s big.

Disclaimer: None of this implies that I think Lunardi does a good job seeding teams!

*Chaminade doesn’t count.