Save the Shield! A Vanderbilt sports blog

Seriously, if you don’t read the VandySports free MBB board, check this out:

Kentucky fans sound off about Honest John Calipari — before having a reason to defend him.

It’s still way early to project all this stuff, especially given that we don’t even know the matchups yet, of course. But it’s fun.

No Vanderbilt fan is going to love these numbers, based on Pomeroy’s Pythagorean ratings, Bill James’ log5 formula, and Lunardi’s bracket projections. (Yeah, yeah, I know there are better brackets, I just don’t know which one to go look for and expect to be updated on any given day.)

All of tihs is assuming the starting bracket is just as Lunardi says.

Probability (Vanderbilt beats Kent State): 72% — Let that one marinate for a second. More than 1/4 of the time, we get Siena Redux. Deal with it.

Probability (Temple beats GT): 52% — Just an awful draw for Temple, if you believe the numbers. GT is an outrageously strong 12-seed, from the very very underrated ACC. How many years can you say the ACC is much better than people think?

The upshot is that in this draw Vanderbilt doesn’t benefit from something most 4-seeds would, the possibility of playing a 12-seed in the second round. Effectively Vanderbilt plays the winner of like a 7 and an 8.

Probability (Vanderbilt plays Temple): 38%
Probability (Vanderbilt beats Temple if they play): 47%
Probability (Vanderbilt beats Temple): 18%

Probability (Vanderbilt plays GT): 34%
Probability (Vanderbilt beats GT if they play): 49%
Probability (Vanderbilt beats GT): 17%

So the total probability of Vanderbilt in the Sweet Sixteen is 35%. Virtually any Vanderbilt fan would look at this draw and estimate it to be higher, but intuition can be a tricky thing.

I’ll try to run it out to the Elite Eight and Final Four when I have time.

• Forgot to turn on the Dores vs. the Junior Vols in WBB. 31-30 to the team w/o a sexist nickname, early 2nd half. Really hope we hang on. #
• Damn, I missed the tech. Was that a Class A or Class B? Pat’s not used to not getting a call, doesn’t matter where the game is. #
• I hate Tennessee. I just wanted to state that in case it’s unclear. #
• Great, this is what I need to get my week off to a great start, watching us blow a lead to them. #
• Good grief, I’m pathetic. Forgot to check the time of the #Vanderbilt Tennessee game and turned it on at halftime. All downhill since then. #
• Are Doug Sermon’s sermons better than Penn Wagers’ wagers? I’m feeling a lot calmer than 5 minutes ago, but still much work ahead. #
• Awesome to see Dolla Beal start to get the national attention he deserves. #
• Uggh, Dores, don’t let up. Play like you intend to beat these jerks by 50. #
• RT @mgrif32 Vols face biggest deficit of Pearl era: http://blogs.knoxnews.com/askgriff/2010/02/i_like_ut_vs_vandy_fulmer_like.html #
• Uggh, apparently Illinois is hung over from their big win in Madison. (Not that I like the Illini, i just like strength of schedule.) #
• Yesterday slaughtered us in the Pomeroys. Weren’t we around 20th? 30th now. Offense ok (11th natl) but D dropped from 60s to 82nd. #

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I’m not going to get too upset about Saturday’s result. Maybe when Kentucky finds a coach who can actually hang onto his accomplishments rather than getting them all vacated by the NCAA, I’ll respect them as a good basketball program again rather than just proficient cheaters.

But we’re still working on a pretty good season, and how the team reacts to its first adversity in a while will mean a lot. I wrote up a long post just now on the topic of Joe Lunardi’s latest projections — not sure if there’s a way to permalink to Feb. 1, but at any rate we’re supposedly the top 4-seed. I figure it’s worth preserving.

omnidore opined,

As good as I think this team is, I’m pretty surprised that he has VU as 13th on his S curve considering only 1 win over a ranked team.

And I responded:

Well, we have one road win against a 4-seed, another road win against a 10-seed, and a home win against an 8-seed. Only one of those would map into Lunardi’s top 25, i.e. a 6 seed or the best of the four 7s. But the NCAA committee doesn’t consider poll top 25 at all, of course, and I don’t think RPI top 25 makes it up there like RPI top 50. That’s great for us because we’re 3-2 vs. top 50 with two of the wins on the road.

Tennessee by contrast has a great home win over a 1-seed, another home win over a 10-seed, and a home win over a 9-seed. As great as their best win is, I think I’ll take our three biggest wins over theirs (and only one of those maps to Lunardi’s supposed Top 25, anyway, so you’d have to be surprised if they were 13th too).

New Mexico has one fewer loss and five more wins* on the 95th schedule (per KenPom, where we have the 12th schedule, and yes I’m mixing sources), but their best wins are also at home over a 3 (BYU), an 8 (Cal), and a 10 (A&M). Again, only one above Joe’s 6-line.

Temple has two more wins than us on the 30th schedule. Best wins are home versus a 1 (’Nova), a 7 (X), and an 11 (Siennnna). I don’t know where Xavier would fall among the 7-seeds, but if you were only interest in top 28 wins that would be a second one for Temple. Good away win vs. a last four out (Seton Hall).

So I think it’s appropriate for Vanderbilt to be first among those; I like our resume all told, especially because of the 2-1 road vs. RPI top 50. That’s big.

Disclaimer: None of this implies that I think Lunardi does a good job seeding teams!

*Chaminade doesn’t count.

By now you know I’m not real big on game analysis. I haven’t checked out the game thread on Anchor of Gold but I’m sure it’s got some good commentary.

Couldn’t leave tonight’s win unnoted, though. Honestly, I do think that Tennessee was running on fumes to beat Kansas and start the SEC season, and that their thinness is catching up with them. I get that Chism is not 100% after taking a fall on Saturday. However, that doesn’t make this less of a milestone win. The way we played in the second half tonight, after having a similar 1st/2nd improvement against Auburn, really has me excited.

On to Kentucky, and the slimy coach who forfeits Final Fours. Should be a fun game with no pressure for the ‘Dores, and not just because Kentucky’s season might be vacated by 2014.

This week NYD and I appear to have repaired the bottleneck in our joint writing process (namely the sloth of PhilipVU94) and we got our ballot in on time. I can heartily endorse Google Wave for its online groupware (collaboration) functionality, although it is still beta - hit me up if you’d like a free invitation.

I still have to let him write the Kentucky ones because I can’t say anything nice about the program that hired the game’s biggest scumbag regardless of if they win every game 157 to nothing. I don’t know why that bunch of fans gets so excited about honors that, the track record suggests, will most likely be vacated before 2015 rolls around. Try building a good team while following these rules one of these years like the coach you ran off used to do and I’ll pay attention.

Here’s the ballot:

1. 1 Kentucky - Yes, they’ve clearly performed the best of any SEC squad to date, but there are still questions as to just how good they are, and as to whether or not they really have any marquee wins.
2. Tennessee - Thanks to a certain football coach, the Vols’ celebration after beating #1 was even shorter-lived than the one after beating Memphis in 2008.
3. Vanderbilt - Free throws? We don’t need no stinkin’ free throws. Shaq didn’t need free throws. In 2008 Memphis didn’t need… um, OK, they needed one free throw.
4. Miss State - Jarvis Varnardo rejected the comment we had prepared for the Bulldogs this week. Oh well.
5. S Carolina - Certain pygmy tribes actually have a taller starting five than the Gamecocks… though Carolina does have some bulk on the Hobbits.
6. Florida - The reality is that Billy D no longer has a team whose sum is greater than the whole of its parts… and he hasn’t since the Fab Four carried the chemistry out the door.
7. Ole Miss - The home loss to MSU will sting for a little while, but Ole Miss still should be in the hunt at season’s end for Western Division champs.
8. Alabama - Anthony Grant may have to wait for the right players to run his preferred up-tempo style. But he’s got a pesky, turnover-causing team that’s annoying to play.
9. Georgia - Two close conference losses and a mixed OOC slate are still good enough for 9th.
10. Arkansas - Just barely got that first SEC game in before the polls closed. But the season highlight is still a close loss to Texas.
11. Auburn - Is there anything worse than getting rid of all-around good guy Jeff Lebo and not having any tangible improvement to show on the court?
12. LSU - Methinks the LSU pharmacology squad has been spending too much time with the D-Line and not enough time with the Frontcourt.

So much one could say about the news that Boy Blunder will be moving back to the pro football ranks with the Los Angeles franchise. But really, I think this story really says everything you need to know about the human refuse that UTn hired to represent it last year.

Man, I’ve been really out of it. I’m too cynical about college sports at the moment to blog much, but not quite motivated to blog about why I’m cynical. Maybe soon.

Here’s the first hoops ballot in conjunction with NYDore. I can’t claim any of the creativity here because I’m just not feeling creative these days.

1. Kentucky - Psst. Kentucky fans. No matter what they tell you, John Wall is NOT coming back for another year.

2. Ole Miss - Best in the West is a pretty far cry from best in the East right now.

3. Vanderbilt - Surprisingly easy blowouts are nice enough, but they have to start the conference season out strong against Florida.

4. Florida - Billy D has pretty much owned on Vandy in Gainesville, so a win this Saturday in Nashville could set up a key in division sweep.

5. Tennessee - No team with Steven Pearl in the rotation will be higher than 10th, but no DA in Knoxville can get past 2nd chair if they convict half the basketball team. So we have a stalemate.

6. Miss State - The second best SEC team to lose to Western Kentucky.

7. Carolina (our’n) - It’s hard to imagine this Cock squad going far without Dominique Archie… especially now that Downey is not the dominant PG showstopper in the East.

8. Alabama - OK, after Cornell outplayed (and should have beaten, but for the officiating) Kansas at the Fieldhouse, Alabama is officially out of the doghouse for that last loss.

9. Georgia - Getting rid of Felton is already looking to pay dividends.

10. Arkansas - Their best pre-conference win was over a rape allegation.

11. Auburn - There are close losses to FSU and NCState and a 1 point win over UVA. Not so bad. But then there’s the rest of the out-of-conference. Bleech.

12. LSU - Is it bad that I miss the days of being able to make fun of John Brady? Is it worse that I have to admit that LSU was a better team under him?

And here’s the final football ballot, a solo effort:

1. Alabama

2. Florida

3. Ole Miss

4. LSU

5. Auburn

6. Arkansas

7. Georgia

8. Tennessee (6-8 was the hardest part… Not sure UTn shouldn’t be 6th candidly)

9. South Carolina

10. Kentucky

11. State

12. us

I’ve been trying for a while to get into using Ken Pomeroy’s stats, especially the main ones of tempo-free offense and defense. Each year I understand what’s going on on his page a little more, but the key to making knowledge your own is learning to apply it for new insights. So I guess you could say that today’s game against DePaul, coming on the heels of an 83-possession transitionfest against Mizzou, is sort of a watershed in my comprehension.

By my calculation using the 0.4 coefficient for free throws, today’s game comes out right at 60 possessions. That would make it by far our slowest game of the season, but a very typically-paced game for DePaul. And of course, in any slow-paced game people get really down on the offense, as a couple of threads on VandySports bear out.

But does that hold water? By my calcs today we were at 1.12 points scored per possession and 0.9 points allowed, right on our season average. DePaul is clearly a team that can impose their pace on anyone — they went only 62 trips with Tennessee, for crying out loud — but they’re only moderately successful defensively, and they didn’t really stop us from scoring today. They just slowed us down to their preferred pace.

We’ll probably drop a little bit from 24th in the Pomeroys, because our schedule up to this point was a stellar 11th (16th offensively, 23rd defensively). DePaul isn’t anywhere near that good, and when you reproduce your efficiency averages against a team that’s worse than the average team you’ve played so far, it hurts you a bit. Somewhat counteracting that is the fact that Mizzou, a team that Pomeroy’s numbers still love (12th), blew out Oregon, a team they like (59th). In any case, we won’t fall much.

It’s way too early to ascribe too much meaning to most of Pomeroy’s numbers, but I’m pretty confident asserting that our perceived offensive failings today had more to do with DePaul’s pace than with our offense’s deficiencies, or indeed with DePaul’s accomplishments.

Thanks to NYDore for helping out in weeks when I can’t do the ballot. Again, check out his new blog, When [It] Strikes Me, for more than the three posts a season I feel like doing here. This week’s ballot is a joint effort.

Good grief, do we still have two weeks of games before Alabama-Florida? Someone please put this season out of its misery! The middle six teams grow even more muddled by the week. Four of the six are 2-2 against the rest of their peer group. You can’t use momentum because that changes every week. So we just sorted out the teams we could, threw the rest in a hat, and voilà.

1. Alabama - We’ve been thinking that, based on the clinical ruthlessness of his teams, Nick Saban should be an executioner at the state prison. But you know, with all the joy that he brings the majority of Alabamans, he can probably settle for consistently pulling the plug on Vol and Auburn fans’ collective hopes.
2. Florida - After a one week engagement of “Impressive”, the Gators have gone back to our regularly scheduled performance, “Merely Effective.” Good enough.
3. LSU - Putting Louisiana Tech between Bama and Ole Miss screams sneak up… but c’mon. You’re better than that. Weak wins against Washington, Vandy, and now LT make me wonder if LSU isn’t further back toward the pack.
4. Georgia - The Dawgs are 3-1 versus the muddled middle. If you forgive the whuppings at the hands of Urban and Boy Blunder, it’s not too bad a resume.
5. Ole Miss - Classic Houston Nutt: Wait until the team has clinched a season of profound disappointment, then show up with the SEC’s answer to the ‘07 Patriots.
6. South Carolina - A strong showing against Florida may have fallen short, but Spurrier may need a similar effort against Clemson to stay off the (really) hot seat.
7. Tennessee - Boy Blunder turns disciplinarian, but does it really count to kick someone off if they’re headed for jail anyway?
8. Auburn - Ask your athletic director if Chizik might be right for you. Chizik may cause heartburn, blood pressure rising, euphoria, heartbreak, confusion and restless leg syndrome. Please consult your doctor before your team hires Chizik.
9. Arkansas - Arkansas’ offense has run over more defenses than any other SEC team. Which begs the question: How did Alabama ever hold them to 7 points?
10. Miss State - An upset in the last two wouldn’t shock me, or probably anyone else. Though the domination by Bama was stark, even by Saban standards.
11. Kentucky - Kentucky had four different passers in the first half, and only RB Derrick Locke completed a throw. But alas, when you get to play Vanderbilt this year, it just doesn’t matter.
12. Vanderbilt - We guarantee the rest of the SEC that every penny of our ESPN money will be spent on pain relievers for our fans. Now stop asking for the money back. We gave you your bowl last year.